Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Bravo TV Women: Right (For Once)

What do these women on Bravo television say?

Refreshingly, just this: Dating ain't a goddamn fairytale. He's imperfect and so are you. Stop watching so much t.v.. Stop fantasizing so much, its interfering with actual reality. Grow up.

And if a Woman Did This

Do you REALLY THINK she would be charged AT ALL, WITH ANYTHING, much less a FELONY!?!?!?  And don't give me that crap that women somehow CANNOT do such a thing. If a man tries to leave a home and a woman says no and he forcibly moves past her, HE CAN LITERALLY BE CHARGED WITH ASSAULT.
This man AND HIS GIRLFRIEND clearly have emotional problems that must be resolved. 
I cannot help but point out the definition of "assault" here. This man is a NFL-class LINEBACKER, meaning he's a very strong man. His girlfriend says she was assaulted "several times." What does that mean? Was she punched? Shoved? What was she treated at the hospital for? As far as we know, it could be shock or emotional trauma. To wit:

"The women told police that Hill blocked the doorway and took her cell phone."

When did he physically hurt her? If he did, that CRITICAL FACT is not mentioned! Why? Because he never hurt her, that's why.

The point is, the article implies this man held her as a prisoner and beat her, severely, as if he caused bruises and broken bones, when in fact, I'll bet he barely laid a hand on her and simply prevented her from leaving by gently restraining her - no, that's not ok. I don't see it as a FELONY, up there with rape, murder, and ARSON. But it doesn't seem as though this testosterone-addled man actually really HURT anyone. And for not hurting anyone he's been charged with MULTIPLE FELONIES? If a girl takes my cell phone and prevents me from leaving would she be charged with MULTIPLE FELONIES?

Nope. Welcome to America: land of the double standard.
By the way, when he's ordered to stay away from his girlfriend and seek counseling, what is she ordered to do?!?!? NOTHING. And when SHE goes back TO HIM after altercations, whose fault is that?
His, of course. Women are forced to take responsibility for nothing.

ISSAQUAH, Wash. -- Seattle Seahawks linebacker Leroy Hill was arrested after police say he assaulted his girlfriend and kept her in his home against her will.
According to a release from the Issaquah Police Department on Wednesday morning, Hill was arrested on investigation of unlawful imprisonment-domestic violence and third-degree assault-domestic violence. Issaquah police said Hill would be booked into the King County Jail, although records Wednesday morning indicated he had yet to be booked.
Both charges are felonies in Washington state. It's at least the fourth time Hill, 30, has been arrested and the second time he's been accused of domestic violence.
Police said they responded to Hill's home around 4 p.m. Tuesday. A 26-year-old said she had been assaulted several times and was kept in Hill's home against her will. The women told police that Hill blocked the doorway and took her cell phone. She was able to escape the home when Hill used the bathroom, police said.
She was treated at a hospital and released. A Seahawks spokesman said the team is aware of the situation.
Hill played last season on a one-year contract with the Seahawks. He played in 13 games, starting 12, and recorded 47 tackles and 1½ sacks. Hill is one of two players still on the Seahawks roster from their lone Super Bowl appearance when they lost to Pittsburgh. He's played all eight NFL seasons with the Seahawks and has started 89 of 97 games in his Seattle career.
Hill is scheduled to become a free agent this offseason.
For much of his career, off-field problems have followed Hill. He was arrested less than a year ago for marijuana possession in Atlanta, but the charge was later dismissed. His first arrest came in 2009 in Georgia for marijuana possession where he was sentenced to 12 months of probation.
Then in April 2010, Hill was arrested by Issaquah police on a fourth-degree assault-domestic violence charge. Hill avoided trial on that charge after agreeing to a stipulated order of continuance that required him to avoid legal troubles for 18 months and complete a one-year, state-certified domestic violence treatment program.
Hill was suspended by the NFL for two games during the 2010 season.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Love Letter - Why Am I Unhappy?

Answer: Because you are selfish and letting your children run your life while telling your husband to act like a weak, tiny pussy with no voice or penis.

I feel actually sorry for the woman in this pathetic rant. I really do. She sounds like she's got something of a clue.

The "love doctor" is again, an unforgiveable fricking idiot. She says hardly anything right; this just goes to show how little good advice and support women have these days. Its outrageous and destructive. Its killing families. 

The FEMALE love doctor is wrapped up in feelings. Feelings are a DISTANT SECOND in marriage. Most couples when pressed will say that they were WILDLY IN LOVE at first and very happy. Feelings were just fine from the start - what BENT the feelings were duties, responsibilities and stress. Once those things are conquered and CRUSHED, then the feelings suddenly and inexplicably flourish and everyone stands around askance and glowing at their new-found miracle of feeling - the feelings are alive and living, but they are typically being suffocated by the weight of life's demands. The answer is to psycho, hyper-organize and prioritize like a goddamn 4 star general in war all of life's demands and give the feelings some fucking ROOM AND AIR. 

Here is the real response this lady should've gotten:

Madame, divorce is not an option. Family courts are a nightmare and the lawyers will bankrupt you; you will win the house and all of your hubby's money. Then he was go crazy and move away because he was wiped out; your kids will then freak out and get on drugs and alcohol because they've lost their father. You can do NOTHING to help them, but you will stick them in therapy and it will cost a lot. Then you will try to pick up another guy and when you mention you have kids, he will want to run away. No offense.

Furthermore, your marriage is totally salvagable. Most are. Your husband and you were reckless to have two kids so fast, so announce that out loud. Second, your kids are spoiled, selfish brats because the liberals believe spanking and ALL FORMS of discipline amount to torture and you are stupid enough to believe them. Without discipline, all kids act out like crazy, looking for limits. Pick up a Psych book. Trust me. I'm a father of 11 years. My boy's mom was TOTALLY CLUELESS. Further, you don't let your husband properly father. Let him be the bad guy and BACK HIM THE FUCK UP. Let him discipline the kids. He wants to; you don't. Your kids will cry and scream fake cries. Tell them you love them and to STFU. Period. Done.

You know what's bad for kids: DIVORCE, YOU MORON. You want to spoil the kids? STAY TOGETHER. So kids now go to bed an hour early. Who will that kill?!?!?! So they'll wake up early. So what. You and hubby need LOTS OF FUN TIME, RIGHT FRICKING NOW. You need to tell jokes and stories and drink - yeah, drink. Every night. Blow off steam. Calm down. Laugh. Watch movies. Go out. MONEY IS NO OBJECT. Tell your husband he is in command with the kids and when you feel the urge to overrule him, SHUT THE FUCK UP. He has PARENTAL INSTINCTS TOO AND THEY ARE RIGHT. So quit being a fucking know-it-all. Every mom thinks she knows it all. Mom's run families these days and the kids are disrespectful monsters. YOUR HUSBAND WANTS TO KICK ASS AND YOU WANT HIM TO AS WELL SO GET OUT OF THE WAY

He'll feel like a man, you'll calm down, the kids will ACTUALLY LISTEN TO YOU BECAUSE THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES IF THEY DON'T, and it won't take 3 hours of your fun time just to get them to bed. Your fun time is zero right now and you need it to go from zero to awesome. You and your hubby need to fool around - a lot. Sex HELPS A LOT. So get a bottle and tell the kids if they get out of bed for anything other than going to the bathroom, THEY ARE GETTING SPANKED ON THE ASS. 

Kids have been tapped on the ass for centuries and none of them died. The trauma they declare is nothing but an act and they are fine. You still love them and will tell them so RIGHT AFTER SPANKING THEM. The kids run your life right now and your life is a chaotic nightmare, hence the stress and fighting. THAT ALWAYS HAPPENS TO COUPLES WHEN THE KIDS RUN THE SHOW.

NO ONE IS IN CHARGE; there is no real authority - that is a very. serious. problem. 

Your house is a random collection of insane inmates and there is no ORDER. The kids, YOU, YOUR HUSBAND, AND YOUR MARRIAGE NEED SOME GODDAMN ORDER. RIGHT GODDAMN NOW. Not after therapy, not after a month or so of talking. RIGHT. FUCKING. NOW.

WAKE UP. Divorce will RUIN your life and you will NEVER EVER trust anyone ever again. WAKE UP. 

Tell your husband he has the right to KICK ASS and then back the FUCK OFF, I don't care HOW MUCH it stings. Your husband WON'T KILL ANY KIDS, SO CALM DOWN.

Remember this is for the kids, this is for you, it is for THE FAMILY.

Your husband is mad because he can't do what his instincts tell him to do, he can't earn enough, can't discipline the kids, can't please you or make you happy, and so he feels like a loser; want to change things? MAKE SURE HE DOESN'T FEEL LIKE A LOSER. Then he'll be happy to take you out at night and let you have your way. If he feels like a bum, he's going to dig in his heels and fight for some goddamn respect. GET IT?!!??

Your family and his family? EFF THEM. THEY DON'T RUN, LIVE, OR HELP YOUR MARRIAGE, SO EFF THEM. THEY COME DEAD LAST. All they want to do is spoil your kids and your kids are already spoiled.

The order of importance is here:

2) THE KIDS, but only basics such as food, water, shelter. FUN AND GAMES, NO.
3) Husband
4) Wife (whoever occupies #4 is actually happier than #3)
5) Fun playtime for kids, WITHIN REASON and without infringing on #1-4
6) If there is time, GRANDPARENTS

When there is a conflict, THE MARRIAGE comes first. Why? BECOMES IT MUST. Quit running around being everyone's bitch. Starting with being your children's bitch. They need you and they need you sane and stable; SO START KICKING ASS. You and your family will stabilize and happiness will be within reach. 


I don't like my husband

Posted by Meredith Goldstein  December 13, 2012 08:09 AM

Q:Hi Meredith,
I am in need of some advice and/or maybe some "just deal with it" perspective. I am a married woman with young children. My husband and I got married and then very quickly had children. As a result, we didn't have a lot of time when it was just the two of us, and the stresses of raising children have definitely gotten to us. Here is where I need the advice ...
Although I am very confident that my husband is a great father, I am much less confident that we are a healthy couple. I fantasize about divorcing him frequently, and often find myself thinking that if money and kids were not issues, I would be totally out of this relationship. I don't get much joy out of being with him, and we are constantly bickering with each other over things like cleaning, child rearing, our respective families, etc. I end up getting so angry and disgusted with him and vice versa. We've tried couples counseling and it helped a bit, but I think the fundamental issue is that I just don't like my husband very much. I find him nit-picky, defensive, annoying, and overly demanding. Any reserves we had are pretty much gone. And there's nothing really wrong with him -- he's a nice guy with a good job, good sense of humor, from a good family, etc. I'm just not that into him. But of course being married with small children makes it pretty difficult to just get up and go. I don't want to hurt them.
So, should I just deal with it and try to find things I like about my husband or should we do something else? Which is worse? Parents who don't really like each other or divorced parents? Advice? Thanks!
– Trouble in Suburban Paradise, Medford

A:I would never tell you to "just deal with it," TISP. Is that even possible at this point?
Experts go back and forth about the kid issue, but my official, advice-columnist opinion is that kids are happier when they have happy parents. Of course, divorce won't necessarily make you happy. It might solve some problems, but it will absolutely create others.
I don't know enough about your situation to endorse divorce. I will only say that if you are certain that there is no love to rediscover, no healthy partnership to save, and no future laughs to be shared as partners, then yes, divorce seems like a pretty practical option.
If I had you in a room with me I'd have to ask: 1) What spawned this marriage to begin with? 2) Were you happy during that short time without kids? [JB: Uh, probably - that's why they got married, dumbass] 3) When you fantasize about divorcing your husband, how do you envision your single life? [JB: However she envisions it, she's wrong, as she's understimating Hell. She's not envisioning; SHE'S FANTASIZING.]
It sounds like you need to bring up divorce in therapy because that's where you can safely answer my questions and decide what's at the root of this. There are ways to avoid bickering about cleaning, kids, and in-laws, but if the fundamental issue is that you're not into (and maybe don't like) your spouse [JB: impossible; you never would've gotten married if that was the case], you're just going to keep hitting a wall [JB: yes you'll keep hitting a wall because you're trying to be equals when mom wants dad to be dominant and she wants to play Santa with the kids all day and mom won't say that and dad doesn't know that].

Go back to that therapist and ask: What is the best-case scenario for this marriage?

Then talk about my questions and find out whether your husband has the same 

[JB: Really? Why would a man have a woman's answers?!?!?!  How about instead, BE RUTHLESSLY HONEST WITH HIM AND LET HIM BE RUTHLESSLY HONEST WITH YOU. THEN AGREE TO GET SHIT DONE. NOW.]

Readers? Therapy? Divorce? Is this about the kids? Help.

– Meredith

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

The Old Days... Filled with Evil Men.

This is circulating Facebook. The comments are pretty funny, but they also show people's ignorance.

You probably, dear reader, have NO IDEA how far from stable our present, Western society is.

Look up Carl Goerdeler. This was a German politician and a man involved in the plot to depose Adolf Hitler. He opposed the Nazi party, although he was FAR too acquiescent about Jewish property being confiscated by the Nazis. This was a conservative MAN who would not allow divorced MEN in his own home because divorce was so disgraceful to him.

This was a MAN'S rule. No one gave him this rule. No one forced him to have it. He made it because he was religious and HATED the idea of divorce. That kind of thinking makes people call you "conservative." Doesn't that make EVERY SINGLE WOMAN a conservative? I don't know one woman who wants to get divorced; of course, they're happy to see divorce laws grant them the keys to their husbands life - they view it as an insurance policy.

But back to Carl.

Any women alive today need this man's views screamed in their face, repeatedly. There was a time when MEN, upstanding men, detested and despised divorce, vehemently. Carl was not alone. Many men were married and DETERMINED to remain married. They attended church; most people did. They were not angels, but the denounced and insulted divorce and immoral behavior in general. Because of this, WOMEN DID NOT FEAR DIVORCE: NOR WERE THEY MUCH ANXIOUS OR WORRIED ABOUT IT. The lack of anxiety in women meant happier husbands and happier marriages. Oh and happier kids - if anyone still cares about them these days (instead of simply claiming to).

[Side Note: Here's a tip ladies: men really do HATE divorce. When married they have access to sex, more money, most likely a big TV, and probably a beer within reach. Tell me, WHY THE BLEEP a man with that would want to get divorced? For a younger woman? Those women have outlandish expectations, have slept around, and are immature and childish - they're a fun fantasy in DREAMLAND - in REALITY, they are a basket of ugliness. NO, LADIES, men DO NOT get divorced for younger, hotter women. Does it never happen? No. Does it happen often? Not even close. Your husband isn't Tiger Woods, ladies. And Hell, even Tiger didn't cheat cuz the other women were hotter; his wife was plenty sexy - so quit worrying your man is dying to leave you, he's not.]

Women's lack of fear meant rich divorce settlements and child support laws were totally unnecessary.

Imagine that ladies? Not even the CHANCE of divorce. When a man married you, HE MARRIED YOU.

And so.... back in the 1930s and 40s when women were supposedly "suppressed" by men and society, MEN felt a DUTY AND RESPONSIBILITY to marry and support women and children. It was the de facto STANDARD.

Fast forward to today when many women support their husbands financially - especially younger women, and divorced men as young as 25 or 30 are bankrupt and unable to remarry. Divorced women are quickly becoming thought of by men as "tainted" due to the fact they financially blew out one man in divorce and could certainly do so again. Divorced men are nearly "untouchable" by women because they are seen as a financial liability (and they are).

Divorce and out-of-wedlock births are RIPPING society to pieces (see the stats on how miserable the children of divorced parents are?) and people all just stand around and claim "everything is alright" and its "just the way it is," that it is "no one's fault."

How does that sound to you, women of the interwebs? No more marriage, no more husband's supporting wives? Do you enjoy the new "standard." Or do you YURN for the OLD DAYS!?!?!?!

Monday, January 07, 2013

No, She Should Get Zero

What the Fuck is wrong with these people? "Popular Critic" below claims this man should be paying $30,000/month. A MONTH. For one child in child support.

First off, CAN YOU EVEN THINK, "Popular Critic?"

50 children wouldn't cost that. How can one?

What they are DEMANDING is that he pay this to his ex-girlfriend for HERSELF. The child expenses are an afterthought, AT BEST.

The best part is the article is implying she is starving. But wait for this: Chris is already paying her $2,600/month. She's applying for food stamps on salary - TAX FREE - that would amount to a $50,000/year job. She's living like she's working, BUT SHE'S NOT WORKING. And this celeb rag is FURIOUS that she's not getting paid SIX TIMES AS MUCH for doing absolutely nothing but raising a child - which as a mother, she's supposed to do anyway. Or what should she give Chris for being a father? Oh, that's right, nothing. Both being a mom and a dad is just a duty - THERE IS NO GODDAMN SALARY attached.

Now, he is a man of means, so he can adequately care for his son - THAT'S WHAT $2,600/MONTH IS FOR. That could take care of 30 kids.

THE GROWN-UP WOMAN? No, she gets zero. She can afford daycare and work, or else find a man to marry. Furthermore, the money Chris pays should STOP ENTIRELY when the child is old enough for daycare to no longer be necessary - say 12 or 13. Some would say, once this woman remarries, she has a new source of support and should now receive nothing.

As it stands now, this woman receives $2,600/month and her ex-boyfriend receives..... NOTHING. And no, seeing his OWN SON is not something his ex-girlfriend GIVES to him. The child is not HER EXCLUSIVE PROPERTY. Period. Because without Mr. Bosh, this child DOES NOT EXIST.


EXTORTION IS WRONG, IMMORAL, ILLEGAL. Outside of the corrupt family courts, any method of extortion is punishable - 

Under federal and state laws, extortion carries up to a 20-year prison sentence. 

This article is ANGRY because this woman has not used AN INNOCENT CHILD to extort MORE MONEY from the man she did not marry and is no longer with.


Chris Bosh’s Child’s Mother Allison Mathis Applies For Food Stamps

June 19 | Posted by Popular Critic

Miami Heat star Chris Boshis fighting Oklahoma City Thunder for his first championship ring on the court but his ex-girlfriend and mother of his only daughter Trinity is fighting for survival – if we believe the reports. Chris and Allison Mathis have been entangled in bitter court battles over custody, Basketball Wives and visitation times. Chris’s reputation has remained intact through out the battles but this latest news may hit him hard.
According to GossipExtra, Allison was recently laid off which has caused her life to spiral out of control. Her home is reportedly near foreclosure and she was forced to apply for food stamps since Chris’s $2,600/month is not sustainable.
It’s unclear if this is the real amount Allison receives per month but with the NBA player’s $18 million/year salary his child support payments per state regulations would be closer to $30,000/month!!
“My client just lost her job and applied for food stamps for her and Mr. Bosh’s daughter. She’s about to be foreclosed on, he won’t help her and all he wants to do is go to London with his daughter. Are (you) kidding?”
Orlando family law attorney Jane E. Carey added,
“He wants to take his daughter across the world for a photo op. It’s just for a photo op. He doesn’t care. He hasn’t been decent to my client and his daughter.”
Chris Bosh has since remarried to Adrienne Bosh and they welcomed a son, Jackson, earlier this year. Do you think Chris Bosh should help the mother of his child?

7 Years for Murder

Another pathetic joke of a sentence for a murderer.

The murderer happens to be a woman, so all of the rules must change: murder, totally premeditated and without ONE SHRED of evidence of self-defense yields just a 7 year sentence.

If you pirate some software you can get 5 years.

This woman took a man's life.

Her only statement, was the old reliable female standby: my husband was a torturous monster.


So instead of divorcing him and taking everything he owned, she killed him?

His side of the story we'll never have: due to his wife killing him, of course.

A Vermont woman lost control of her car along Route 5A, crashed into a tree and lost her husband in the ensuing accident. It all seemed like a terrible tragedy. In time, it was revealed to be a terrible crime.

Christine Billis was sentenced to 7 to 15 years in a plea bargain Friday in Vermont Superior Court, after she admitting to causing her husband's death in the 2009 accident. 

She had originally been charged with murder, but pled to manslaughter.

Billis, a Brownington resident, may have gotten away with the crime had she not created an account on the dating site OK Cupid shortly after the accident. In time, she told a romantic prospect that she had purposely caused the crash in hopes of killing her husband. She wore her seatbelt on the night the car veered across the road in Charleston, Vt. Her husband, Charles, 57, did not.

Instead of dating Billis, the online user contacted police and became an informant, according to the New England Cable News network. He recorded conversation and turned the tapes over to police.

She claimed her husband was controlling, abusive and had threatened to kill her.

Felix Zulauf: No, Things are Not Well

When man kind doesn't have his way, he just invents whatever ridiculousness he must to exact control; this inevitably blows up in his face.

From Barry Ritholtz at FusionIQ:

Exclusive interview with Felix Zulauf

We recently sat down with world-renowned money manager Felix Zulauf to get his view on global markets. Felix discusses the European debt crisis, the rebound in Chinese equities, the recent Japanese election and its impact on their markets, the U.S. markets in light of our fiscal issues, and much more.
Felix Zulauf was born in 1950 in Switzerland. He started his career started in 1971 as a trader for the Swiss Bank Corporation where he mastered research and portfolio management at leading investment banks in France, Switzerland and USA. After that he worked at UBS Switzerland where between 1977 and 1988 he was the manager of UBS’s global mutual funds, and a leader of the institutional portfolio management division. In 1990, he started his own hedge fund “Zulauf Asset Management,” where he continues to serve as President.
Mr. Zulauf is widely known for being a long-standing member of the Barron’s Roundtable where every year, for the last 25 years, he shares with the world his views on investment and economic matters. Felix Zulauf is an advocate of the thesis that economies and financial markets move cyclically. This view and belief has helped him to preserve capital during difficult times.

Fusion: Looking at China, Felix, you were bearish at the start of 2012, and then very presciently called a bottom in September. Both the Shanghai Composite and Hang Sang have rallied very strongly since that call.  What is your current outlook on China ?
Zulauf: The new government in China wants to maintain 7-8% growth, and wants to take steps to ensure this. They may increase public spending and relax monetary policy. This won’t come anywhere close to the stimulus of 2008, as China is still suffering the negative side effects. You might see a temporary improvement in economic indicators, but that’s it. The real level of growth in China is probably only 3-4%. That said, there is still perhaps 20-30% upside in Chinese equities, particularly in the first half, although you won’t see the sort of sustained move we saw off the 2008 low there.

Fusion: How does Japan look right now? We note you called for shorting the Yen at a Barron’s conference in October – again, a very prescient call.
Zulauf: Japan’s economy is not doing well and still suffers from deflation. The pronounced deterioration of Japan’s current account and the disappearing ability to finance her own large budget deficits are forcing some important changes. The new government in Japan, led by the LDP and Prime Minister Abe, has a 2/3 majority in parliament and can push through their own will without any problem. Abe wants some increased deficit spending, on top of a budget deficit that is already near 10% of GDP. He wants the Bank of Japan to finance a big part of it by printing new money and thereby weakening the Yen and targeting 2% inflation. If the BOJ doesn’t comply, they have basically been told they will lose their independence as a central bank.  The spending will increase deficits further and weaken the currency, which should improve exports.  I see Dollar/Yen going to 120 within the next 2 years, and the Yen weakening decidedly against all major currencies.

Fusion: So you’re clearly still constructive on China and Japan …
Zulauf: China’s market rebound should at least last during the first half of this year. There is still another 20% to go. After a consolidation and pullback, you can buy FXI here to play it. As for Japan, I am much more bullish as nobody owns Japanese stocks. The total market cap of the market there is one quarter of what is was 23 years ago. If the currency continues to decline against all the others, there will be a tremendous lift to Japanese equities. The Nikkei has at least another 20% upside in 2013 and could do more and last longer, all in local currency terms.

Fusion: What impact will this policy have on their trading partners ?  How will they respond ?
Zulauf: This will put tremendous competitive pressure on emerging Asia and may weaken their exports. This should impact their balance of payment and if they try to stimulate domestic demand more by cutting rates, it may weaken their currencies versus the US-Dollar. As there is simply not enough global growth, competitive devaluations will become more common and could create political anger. The Fed started this. You then saw the Bank of England joining and last year the ECB under Mario Draghi when he said he would do “whatever it takes” to maintain the Eurozone. Now the BoJ, and soon emerging Asia. Everyone is trying to stimulate more on the monetary side, which should help propel world equity markets higher in the first half. It does nothing, however, to help global growth and markets will get disappointed in the second half.

Fusion: Does all this easing start to get reflected in commodity prices ?  And if so, doesn’t this lay the seeds for demand destruction and economic slowing ?
Zulauf: Yes, you will see rising commodity prices. Oil and copper are two we would look at. They could also have a nice rally into mid-year, yet at some point, markets will start to realize the entire stimulus did nothing to help overall global growth, at which point markets will react quite negatively.

Fusion: How does Europe look now ?
Zulauf: In Europe, the prevailing policy goal is to keep the Eurozone together. Draghi has told us as much. The austerity policies may not be sustainable in the peripheral countries as people begin to revolt due to the painful and long lasting recession. Mario Monti lost support because the highly fragmented Italian parliaments withdrew its support. Angela Merkel faces an election in September, and may agree on diluting austerity programs as she doesn’t want any trouble. I see no growth at all in the peripheral countries. Germany may be forced into some debt mutualization on a small scale. It will be the ECB that has to carry Europe through by financing rotten financial institutions and rotten governments. The euro could see 1.40 into the second quarter before going to 1.00 next year, when the markets see more trouble and yields rise again on the sovereign debt of the peripheral countries.

Fusion: How are the European banks doing ?
Fusion: European banks are still in a terrible situation in terms of their balance-sheet. But Basle 3 is getting more and more diluted and the ECB is carrying all through. It is far from a solid situation but stocks are recovering still a bit further. In my view, this is not a place to invest.

Fusion: How does this play out ?
Zulauf: As the market starts to understand there will be no meaningful recovery in the periphery and the fundamental problems remain and grow even bigger, the ECB will have to step in. That should in the second half lead to a resumption of the capital outflow from these countries. At that time, Germany may make more compromises, which will then mean capital doesn’t flow to Germany but out of the Eurozone, which will weaken the Euro. In essence, the ECB may create more liquidity, yet the liquidity will find its way out of Europe.  Up until now, the liquidity created has stayed in the Eurozone. When this reverses, the Euro will have a big drop.

Fusion: What will be the signposts the markets understand the game is over ?  Simple signs of global growth faltering ?
Zulauf: The first few months of 2013 will look like things are gradually getting better, or at least stabilizing. A Honeymoon, in short. Then markets will begin to realize that the improving fundamentals they have discounted will not be there and markets will react negatively. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly when this occurs. My best guess is sometime in mid-2013 or even 2014, as it will all depend on how market internals and indicators are behaving.

Fusion: Let’s move to the U.S. How do things look in the wake of this week’s legislative settlement averting the fiscal cliff ?  You had said a few years back that the world needs new leaders that are willing to make the tough decisions. That doesn’t seem to be happening. Will they fumble the ball in March, too ?
Zulauf: There will most likely be another crisis as we approach the debt ceiling problem. So far, the fiscal compromise was all about revenues. This upcoming battle will be about spending cuts and the GOP will fight hard for entitlement cuts. Whatever policy measures coming out of this negotiation will ensure the U.S. economy won’t take off, which means 2013 earnings estimates are too optimistic. In fact, at the margin, the US will be joining Europe by adopting some austerity – but by far not enough to solve the problem.

Fusion: So Bernanke’s program will ultimately not be successful, in terms of ushering in a period of sustainable growth ?
Zulauf: Sustainable growth requires several things: a good savings rate, strong level of investments, an educated workforce, and strong consumer balance sheets and rising real incomes. Greenspan started a process of inflating the balance sheet of consumers so they feel richer and spend more, which has weakened the whole system. Bernanke is following the same policies, and other central bankers are doing the same.

Fusion: Does the Fed have any bullets left ?
Zulauf: The Fed can buy stocks, or buy commodities … they can buy anything. Yet once you get to the point where central banks are financing 30-40% of government expenditures and the interest carry on that government debt increases, then you have a huge crisis. At that time, we will be forced to either clean out the debt, restructure or we end up like the Weimar Republic. But we are not there yet and it may take many more years until that point is hit.

Fusion: Which brings up rates and the fixed income market. How does this look right now ?
Zulauf: Bond yields have more or less hit bottom on a secular and cyclical basis. The 10-year US Treasury will be range bound, between 1.5 and 2.5%, probably for longer than most can imagine – I mean a few years. Central banks want to prevent a breakout above 2.5%, to keep carrying costs on all the debt as low as possible. Eventually rates will rise much more aggressively.

Fusion: So in the short term, rising commodity prices and yields. Does that in itself stunt the recovery ?
Zulauf: Interest rates will not rise enough to break the economy but rising commodities, energy in particular, and a lack of rising real income would do.

Fusion: Let’s turn to strategy going forward. Let’s start with gold.
Zulauf: The de-basing of currencies is fundamentally bullish for gold, long term. As long as real interest rates remain negative, the fundamentals for gold remain supportive. Right now, gold isn’t trading well, as it’s consolidating. Iran is selling oil for gold, which in turn is dumped on the market. It should be range-bound, $1,500-1800. It needs to break $1,800, and then it will run to $2,200, and new highs. The first positive sign will come once we break above $ 1750.

Fusion: How about commodities ?
Zulauf: Oil and copper will move together and rise in the first half but the big commodity boom that really topped in 2008 is over. The current move is temporary and more for traders, not investors, responding to government and central bank actions and is not sustainable global growth.

Fusion: Thus we still have the China and Japan trade going, and the currency bet we just talked about.
Zulauf: Yes.

Fusion: As they say the apple doesn’t fall too far from the tree. That said, we hear another Zulauf will so be carrying on the family Global Macro legacy. Can you give us some details about your son Roman and his new fund? Will it be available to US investors and will you be involved in the fund ?
Zulauf: My son will start his own company together with some colleagues this spring and will offer a fund as well as managed accounts to investors from around the world, including American. His style is similar to mine, as we have been exchanging views about markets on a daily basis for over 10 years. But I never wanted him to work for me but do his own thing. And after his studies in banking and finance, he has seen research, prop trading, commodity trading and in recent years was part of a global macro team with another hedge fund group. Now, he will start in my offices and I will certainly help him and his colleagues, who bring a good expertise and understanding of markets, and look over his shoulders.

Thanks, Felix.

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Obama: Mr. Anti-Marriage

Last night the House voted 257-167 to approve the fiscal cliff bill that was passed early Tuesday in the Senate.
The bill allows for tax increases on individuals and households making over $400,000 and $450,000 respectively. Incomes above that level will now be taxed 39.6 percent.
Capital gains and dividend tax rates would rise to 20 percent for those above that income threshold. And the bill delays spending cuts by two months.
Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter wasn't too happy with the deal. First he criticized it for being overtly anti-marriage. Second, he said it failed to tackle the "egregious lack of discipline on spending" and said President Obama was leading the country towards socialism. Finally, he was also critical of the fact that this bill originated in the Senate, whereas he writes, "according to the Constitution all fiscally related legislation must originate in the House." Here is his take on the fiscal cliff deal:
"We’ve no great disagreement with the legislation as it stands except for the fact that this is an overtly anti- marriage decision and therefore manifestly discriminatory on its face and there is of course a marked lack of spending cuts and as we all know the problem with the US fiscal deficit is not one of revenue but is one of egregious lack of discipline on spending. Regarding the former concern, unmarried up-income couples will have their taxes held at current levels while upper-income married couples with the same incomes will see their taxes raised materially. Even the French Supreme Court has found that wrong.
Regarding the former concern, we point to the chart [see below] regarding welfare spending which has now reached $1 trillion per year and we are not including here spending on Social Security and Medicare. These are simply unemployment benefits, spending on food stamps and other true “welfare” related programs. And to remember, the figures included here are for 2011. 2012 shall obviously have been far higher and 2013 shall be higher still.
We shall not mince words here then: What the House and the Senate have agreed upon... and what the President has said he shall sign... is horrible legislation and were we a Congressman or Senator we’d have voted against it so long as we had “cover” to do so; but the government needed to be funded; taxes need to be raised; armies, navies and air forces need to be secured et al and in the end there was no choice but to vote for the legislation’s passage. The Left has won. The President has succeeded in moving the country along the path toward socialism. Those who have succeeded in life will pay for that success with higher taxes; those who’ve failed will be paid by those who’ve succeeded. Paul will be paid by Peter and Paul’s support has been won ... perhaps eternally.
Will spending cuts be debated later? Certainly they will be, but just as certainly they will be defeated. Revenues are always raised at the margins, and fail inevitably to raise new revenues, while spending is always supported in any number of way, demanded by the “poor” and by “minorities” and by the “downtrodden” and by whatever euphemism the Left can conjure up. But the country pushes on despite all of that. We are not sure whether to cry or laugh; to applaud hang our head in despair. Perhaps it is best simply to say that we’ve lived to fight another day."
Here is the welfare chart:
welfare spending chart
Heritage Foundation Research